A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
